Horizon scanning for beginners: Part 1 - laying the foundation with objectives and scope

This is the first part of a series of posts explaining why foresight and horizon scanning should be prioritised by every GRC leader, especially with the current turbulent global landscape, characterised by geopolitical instability and relentless technological advancement. The ability to anticipate future challenges and opportunities is not merely advantageous; it's a big must. Foresight and horizon scanning have emerged as critical tools for companies seeking to navigate uncertainty and secure long-term success. But before looking into the intricacies of these processes, let's just define what horizon scanning is from a Purpose and Means perspective: it is a structured process for identifying and analysing the emerging trends, risks, and opportunities that could affect your organisation. It’s about looking beyond the immediate and asking:

• What’s coming?

• How will it impact us?

• What do we need to do about it?

This first part of the series covers setting objectives and scope.

As with many tasks, start with the end in mind. It's crucial to define the objectives and scope, ensuring that company resources are deployed effectively and strategically. Let's explore the key factors that should shape the boundaries of foresight and horizon scanning initiatives.

First and foremost, the business sector in which your company operates exerts a huge influence on the nature and extent of your foresight activities. A technology company, for example, must maintain awareness of emerging technologies, evolving customer preferences, and potential disruptions from competitors. Their foresight efforts might focus on identifying breakthrough innovations, assessing the feasibility of new business models, and anticipating the impact of regulatory changes on the digital landscape. On the other hand, a company in the heavily regulated financial services sector will need to focus on keeping pace with evolving regulations and regulatory expectations, as well as the use of new technologies to counter increasingly sophisticated cyber threats.

The nature of the business itself also plays a pivotal role in shaping the scope of foresight and horizon scanning. A company with a long product development lifecycle, such as in the pharma sector, must adopt a long-term perspective, anticipating trends that may not manifest for several years. Their foresight efforts might involve monitoring scientific breakthroughs, assessing the potential impact of demographic shifts on disease prevalence, and anticipating changes in healthcare policy. Conversely, a company in a fast-moving consumer goods industry may need to focus on more immediate trends, such as changing consumer tastes and preferences, the rise of new distribution channels, and the impact of social media on brand reputation.

Geographic considerations are equally important. A multinational corporation operating in multiple countries must account for the unique political, economic, social, and technological factors in each region. Their foresight efforts might involve monitoring political stability, assessing the impact of trade agreements, and anticipating the emergence of new markets. Also, they must consider the cultural nuances and ethical considerations that may vary across different geographies.

Finally, applicable laws and regulations form a crucial boundary for foresight and horizon scanning. Organisations must ensure that their activities comply with all relevant legal and ethical standards. Their foresight efforts might involve monitoring changes in data protection, AI governance, cybersecurity laws (to mention a few), assessing the impact of environmental regulations, and anticipating the emergence of new legal challenges. Also, they must be mindful of the potential for unforeseen legal risks and liabilities.

Who should be involved in setting the objectives and scope of foresight and horizon scanning? This is not a task to be delegated to a junior team or a single department. It requires a collaborative effort involving key stakeholders from across the company.

• Senior leadership: Their strategic vision and understanding of the organisation's goals are essential for aligning foresight activities with overall business objectives. Without their buy-in, the entire process is likely to be ineffective.

• Subject matter experts: Individuals with deep knowledge of specific areas, such as technology, regulation, or market trends, can provide valuable insights and identify potential areas of concern. Their expertise is crucial for ensuring that the foresight activities are grounded in reality.

• Risk management professionals: Their understanding of the company's risk appetite and risk tolerance is essential for identifying potential threats and vulnerabilities. Ignoring their input is a significant oversight.

• Strategic planning team: They are responsible for developing and implementing the company's strategic plans, and their involvement ensures that foresight activities are integrated into the planning process. Without this integration, foresight is merely an academic exercise.

• Legal and compliance team: Their expertise is important for ensuring that foresight activities comply with all relevant laws and regulations. Failure to involve them can lead to costly legal challenges.

The composition of this group must be carefully considered to ensure a diverse range of perspectives and expertise. Without this diversity, the objectives and scope of the foresight activities are likely to be narrow and incomplete.

You must also reference various sources of information to determine the scope and objectives of foresight and horizon scanning. This is not a process of guesswork or intuition; it requires a systematic and thorough approach to gathering and analysing data - in a way, it's a pre-scan but you'll need to balance it to ensure this first step does not become too overwhelming. Sources to consider include:

• Internal documentation e.g. strategies and expertise

• Industry reports and analyses

• Academic research

• Government publications and regulatory updates

• News media and social media

In my view, this first phase is critical. Failing to carefully define the scope of foresight and horizon scanning work can lead to wasted resources, missed opportunities, and potentially even existential threats. Imagine a retailer focusing solely on domestic markets, while ignoring the rise of e-commerce giants in other regions. Or consider a manufacturer failing to anticipate the impact of climate change on its supply chains. These are just a few examples of the perils of neglecting foresight. I think that the businesses that will thrive in the coming years will be those that make a strategic, well-informed effort to look ahead.

You might want to consider that these factors are not mutually exclusive; they often interact and overlap. The business sector influences the nature of the business, which in turn shapes the geographic considerations and applicable laws. Therefore, a holistic approach is essential, one that considers all of these factors collectively.

The most effective foresight initiatives are those that are integrated into an organisation's strategic planning process. Foresight should not be viewed as a standalone activity, but rather as an integral part of decision-making. By incorporating foresight into their strategic thinking, organisations can make more informed choices, anticipate potential risks and opportunities, and ultimately achieve sustainable success.

Lastly, the scope of foresight and horizon scanning work is not a fixed entity; it's a dynamic boundary that must be continually reassessed and refined in light of changing circumstances. By carefully considering the factors mentioned above, your company can ensure that their foresight efforts are targeted, effective, and aligned with their strategic goals.

Once the objectives and scope are agreed and documented, it's time to assemble a team around you - this will be covered in part 2.

Ready to start scanning the horizon?

• We can get you started by facilitating the end to end processes and then maintain and update your radars on an ongoing basis with regular interaction with you and your team

• We can can help you get started by facilitating the end to end processes and then handing responsibilities to you, providing support afterwards where needed

Feel free to get in touch to arrange a no obligation call to discuss your current situation and hear how Purpose and Means can help you navigate through these turbulent times.